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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Brom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat West Brom 3-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against West Brom attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 40% | Draw 26% | West Brom 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 53%, West Brom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.27 PPG, West Brom 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights