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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Watford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Watford 2-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.78 xG and Watford 1.51 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.30 / defence 1.37 against Watford attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 25% | Watford 32%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 58%, Watford 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Watford's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Watford 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights