🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat QPR 1-2 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.46 xG and Swansea 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Swansea outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 49% | Draw 26% | Swansea 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.22 PPG, Swansea 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights