QPR 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Sunderland meet at Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. QPR have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 1W 1D 8L at Loftus Road — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Loftus Road this season.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for QPR against 1.70 for Sunderland. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for QPR, 1 for Sunderland and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sunderland — key trading statistics (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Sunderland 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 51% | Sunderland 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.83 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.761 / defence 1.066 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.237. QPR's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 QPR games / 51 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sunderland 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 30% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG QPR 0.83 / Sunderland 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.761 / def 1.066 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sunderland xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Sunderland kick off?
QPR vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sunderland?
QPR 1 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is QPR vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sunderland part of?
QPR vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 25% chance of winning, Sunderland a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both QPR and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are QPR and Sunderland in?
QPR (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.91x) against QPR's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.21
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
QPR xG
Total xG
2.04
1.20
Sunderland xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are QPR and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for QPR and 1.20 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, QPR have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 11D 25L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for QPR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland's form line: 20W 15D 16L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for QPR against 1.47 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 10W 7D 7L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.47 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Sunderland in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 11D 25L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.96 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.54 PPG.
Have QPR or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 46%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 46% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 38%; QPR have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of QPR's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is QPR vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sunderland tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.83 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 51%, Sunderland 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.10 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.