QPR 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as QPR face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Sunderland meet at Loftus Road in Championship (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
QPR's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for QPR against 1.70 for Sunderland. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Sunderland edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2023, ended QPR 0–3 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sunderland — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 47% versus Sunderland 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 51% | Sunderland 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: QPR surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Sunderland have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.83 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.761 / defence 1.066 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.237. QPR's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from QPR's last 51 games and Sunderland's last 51.
Result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.01 | Draw 3.21 | Sunderland 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (QPR's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: QPR 30% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 6 | Venue: Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG QPR 0.83 / Sunderland 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.761 / def 1.066 | Sunderland attack 0.910 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sunderland xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does QPR vs Sunderland kick off?
QPR vs Sunderland kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sunderland?
QPR 1 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is QPR vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sunderland part of?
QPR vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 6) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 25% chance of winning, Sunderland a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both QPR and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will QPR vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.91x) against QPR's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 51 games and Sunderland's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.21
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
QPR xG
Total xG
2.04
1.20
Sunderland xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are QPR and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for QPR and 1.20 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, QPR have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 11D 25L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 20W 15D 16L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for QPR against 1.47 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 0.96 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 5D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 10W 7D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.47 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
QPR (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Sunderland in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 15W 11D 25L in their last 51 games (1.10 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 0.96 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.54 PPG.
Have QPR or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won QPR 0-3 Sunderland on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 46%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (QPR) and 46% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 38%; QPR have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of QPR's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of QPR's recent games and 46% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of QPR's recent matches and 71% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.83 xG and Sunderland 1.20 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 51%, Sunderland 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.10 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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