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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant QPR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sheffield Wednesday.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.92 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sheffield Wednesday landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.16 / defence 1.25 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 71/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 53% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Wednesday 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Sheffield Wednesday 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.30 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights