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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR and Preston finished level at 1-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 1, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.38 xG and Preston 1.15 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Preston attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 42% | Draw 27% | Preston 31%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Preston 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Preston's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.22 PPG, Preston 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights