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Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Preston 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Preston 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.31 xG and Preston 1.12 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Preston attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 39% | Draw 31% | Preston 30%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 42%, Preston 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Preston's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.16 PPG, Preston 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights