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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Norwich defy the odds to beat QPR 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Norwich beat QPR 1-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.95 xG and Norwich 1.32 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.22 / defence 1.18 against Norwich attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 52% | Draw 23% | Norwich 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Norwich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Norwich 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.30 PPG, Norwich 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norwich win broke the near-deadlock. Norwich (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights