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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Middlesbrough run riot with a 0-4 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat QPR 0-4 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.57 xG and Middlesbrough 1.88 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. QPR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.14 / defence 1.29 against Middlesbrough attack 1.21 / defence 1.06, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 31% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 44%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 57%, Middlesbrough 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.27 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights