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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant QPR run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Leicester 4-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.74 xG and Leicester 1.50 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Leicester attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 43% | Draw 24% | Leicester 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Leicester 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Leicester's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. QPR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights