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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR and Leeds share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 38, as QPR and Leeds drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.12 xG and Leeds 1.59 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.13 / defence 1.12 against Leeds attack 1.37 / defence 0.74, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 26% | Draw 26% | Leeds 48%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 47%, Leeds 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leeds (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights