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Dominant Ipswich run riot with a 1-4 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat QPR 1-4 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.32 xG and Ipswich 0.87 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ipswich outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Ipswich attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 47% | Draw 28% | Ipswich 25%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 53%, Ipswich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Ipswich's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, QPR arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Ipswich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights