🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Hull City 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Hull City 3-2 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.23 xG and Hull City 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 29% | Draw 25% | Hull City 46%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 52%, Hull City 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Hull City's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.23 PPG, Hull City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights