🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Coventry 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Coventry 2-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.97 xG and Coventry 1.86 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Coventry landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.28 / defence 1.24 against Coventry attack 1.30 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 41% | Draw 23% | Coventry 37%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Coventry 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.28 PPG, Coventry 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights