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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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QPR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Charlton 3-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.18 xG and Charlton 0.90 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Charlton attack 0.72 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 53%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights