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Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-5 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat QPR 0-5 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.78 xG and Burnley 1.32 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Burnley attack 1.15 / defence 0.59, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 22% | Draw 29% | Burnley 49%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 49%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Burnley's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.23 PPG, Burnley 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights