QPR 0-5 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to MATRADE Loftus Road to face QPR in Championship (matchday 45). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
QPR have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, QPR have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — QPR are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burnley (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Burnley have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Burnley are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for QPR, 1 for Burnley and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended QPR 0–0 Burnley — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
QPR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 55% versus Burnley 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 49% | Burnley 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.78 xG and Burnley 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.009 / defence 1.134 | Burnley attack 1.150 / defence 0.588. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.011. Burnley bring a tight defence (rating 0.588, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling QPR's projected output down. Data: built from QPR's last 90 games and Burnley's last 44.
Result probabilities: QPR 22% | Draw 29% | Burnley 49%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.52 | Draw 3.51 | Burnley 2.03. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: QPR 70% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 22% | Draw 29% | Burnley 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG QPR 0.78 / Burnley 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.009 / def 1.134 | Burnley attack 1.150 / def 0.588 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Burnley (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ QPR vs Burnley FAQs
What time does QPR vs Burnley kick off?
QPR vs Burnley kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Burnley?
QPR 0 - 5 Burnley.
Where is QPR vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Burnley part of?
QPR vs Burnley is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 22% chance of winning, Burnley a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both QPR and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will QPR vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.01x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.59x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.15x) against QPR's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from QPR's last 90 games and Burnley's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
22%
4.52
29%
3.51
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
QPR xG
Total xG
2.10
1.32
Burnley xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
23%
4.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.2 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ QPR vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are QPR and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for QPR and 1.32 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
QPR come into this having played 82 games, going 26W 23D 33L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.44 PPG from 82 outings (31W 25D 26L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for QPR against 1.44 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
QPR's home form reads 14W 13D 14L across their last 41 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 41 away games (16W 12D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
QPR are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.24 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
QPR (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
QPR
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ QPR vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are QPR and Burnley in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 26W 23D 33L in their last 82 games (1.23 PPG), while Burnley have gone 31W 25D 26L in their last 82 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.34 PPG; Burnley away: 1.46 PPG.
Have QPR or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Burnley in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between QPR and Burnley, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burnley won QPR 0-5 Burnley on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
QPR
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ QPR vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Burnley?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, QPR have won 1, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: QPR 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 61%, Burnley 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (QPR) and 44% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 37%; Burnley in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ QPR vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in QPR and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of QPR's recent matches and 46% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are QPR and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of QPR's recent games and 44% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of QPR's recent matches and 71% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 0-5 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat QPR 0-5 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.78 xG and Burnley 1.32 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Burnley attack 1.15 / defence 0.59, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 22% | Draw 29% | Burnley 49%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 49%, Burnley 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burnley's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.23 PPG, Burnley 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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