🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Blackburn cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat QPR 1-3 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.76 xG and Blackburn 0.97 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against Blackburn attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 55% | Draw 26% | Blackburn 19%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Blackburn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 56%, Blackburn 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Blackburn's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.30 PPG, Blackburn 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights