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Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Blackburn 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Blackburn 2-1 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.02 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against Blackburn attack 0.85 / defence 0.81, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 36% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 33%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Blackburn 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Blackburn's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — QPR 1.24 PPG, Blackburn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights