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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Birmingham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Birmingham 2-1 at Loftus Road, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.63 xG and Birmingham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.07 / defence 1.18 against Birmingham attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it QPR 51% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 54%, Birmingham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

QPR's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Birmingham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights