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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Wrexham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston and Wrexham finished level at 1-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.15 xG and Wrexham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Wrexham attack 0.75 / defence 0.84, drawn from 64/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 41% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 29%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 47%, Wrexham 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights