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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Brom cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Preston.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Brom beat Preston 0-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.21 xG and West Brom 0.99 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Preston fell 1.2 short of their projected output. West Brom outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against West Brom attack 0.74 / defence 0.99, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 40% | Draw 32% | West Brom 28%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual West Brom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 47%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

West Brom's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.22 PPG, West Brom 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Brom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights