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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Swansea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Swansea 2-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.05 xG and Swansea 0.91 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Preston beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Swansea attack 0.83 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 38% | Draw 31% | Swansea 31%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Swansea 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Swansea's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.22 PPG, Swansea 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights