Preston 0-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sunderland at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 46 sees Sunderland travel to Deepdale to take on Preston. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 May 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preston's home record at Deepdale: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sunderland away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Preston at 1.60 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Preston register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Preston have won 0, Sunderland 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Preston in-play and half-time data (91 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (91 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 48% versus Sunderland 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 45% | Sunderland 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.04 xG and Sunderland 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.973 / defence 1.053 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.103. Data: 91 Preston games / 45 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 30% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40%. Fair-value odds: Preston 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sunderland 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Preston 70% | Sunderland 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 30% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Preston 1.04 / Sunderland 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.973 / def 1.053 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Sunderland xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Sunderland kick off?
Preston vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Sunderland?
Preston 0 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Preston vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Sunderland part of?
Preston vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 30% chance of winning, Sunderland a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Preston and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Preston and Sunderland in?
Preston (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Preston's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Preston's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.38
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Preston xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
Sunderland xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Preston and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Preston and 1.23 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 91 outings, Preston have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 33W 28D 30L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 41W 28D 22L from 91 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preston on 1.40 PPG, Sunderland on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (16W 17D 11L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 17W 16D 11L from 44 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Preston are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.58 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 91 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 33W 28D 30L in their last 91 games (1.40 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 41W 28D 22L in their last 91 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.48 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Preston or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2023, when Sunderland won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Preston's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2025, when Sunderland 1-1 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 59%, Sunderland 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Preston) and 54% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 32%; Preston have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Preston's games and 57% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preston vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Preston's recent games and 54% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Sunderland tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Preston 0-3 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.04 xG and Sunderland 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Preston fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against Sunderland attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 30% | Draw 30% | Sunderland 40%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 45%, Sunderland 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preston 1.40 PPG, Sunderland 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.