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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Stoke City 3-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.02 xG and Stoke City 0.99 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Preston beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against Stoke City attack 0.72 / defence 0.91, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 34% | Draw 33% | Stoke City 32%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 45%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Stoke City's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.18 PPG, Stoke City 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights