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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Preston 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Preston 1-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.28 xG and QPR 0.94 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against QPR attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 44% | Draw 28% | QPR 27%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 51%, QPR 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, QPR 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights