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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Norwich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston and Norwich finished level at 1-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.58 xG and Norwich 1.10 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Norwich attack 0.94 / defence 1.19, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 48% | Draw 26% | Norwich 26%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Norwich 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, Norwich 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights