🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Ipswich 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Ipswich 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.48 xG and Ipswich 0.98 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ipswich landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Ipswich attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/2 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 49% | Draw 26% | Ipswich 25%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 48%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Ipswich's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Preston arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights