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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hull City run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Preston.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Preston 0-3 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.31 xG and Hull City 1.37 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Preston fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hull City outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Hull City attack 1.34 / defence 1.03, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 35% | Draw 27% | Hull City 38%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Hull City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.29 PPG, Hull City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights