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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Hull City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston beat Hull City 1-0 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.28 xG and Hull City 0.88 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Hull City attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 44% | Draw 32% | Hull City 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 53%, Hull City 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.26 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights