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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Coventry share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 20, as Preston and Coventry drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.50 xG and Coventry 1.80 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Coventry landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Coventry attack 1.47 / defence 1.09, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 32% | Draw 23% | Coventry 45%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Coventry 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights