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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Preston and Cardiff share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Preston and Cardiff finished level at 2-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.39 xG and Cardiff 0.88 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Cardiff attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 49% | Draw 27% | Cardiff 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 50%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Cardiff's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.29 PPG, Cardiff 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights