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Stalemate at Preston's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 7, as Preston and Bristol City drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.28 xG and Bristol City 1.42 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preston fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Bristol City attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 34% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 40%, with Bristol City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 46%, Bristol City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol City's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.17 PPG, Bristol City 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights