Preston 2-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Bournemouth in Championship, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Preston have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preston have posted 2W 6D 2L at Deepdale — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth's overall Championship record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bournemouth's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Preston, 1.80 for Bournemouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Preston 1W, Bournemouth 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Preston winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 55% versus Bournemouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 42% | Bournemouth 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 0.89 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.875 / defence 1.209 | Bournemouth attack 0.966 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.067. Data: 35 Preston games / 31 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 27% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 44%. Fair-value odds: Preston 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bournemouth 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Preston 70% | Bournemouth 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 27% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Preston 0.89 / Bournemouth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.875 / def 1.209 | Bournemouth attack 0.966 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Preston xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bournemouth xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Bournemouth kick off?
Preston vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Bournemouth?
Preston 2 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Preston vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Bournemouth part of?
Preston vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 27% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Preston and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): Preston 1W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are Preston and Bournemouth in?
Preston (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Preston's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.97x) against Preston's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 35/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
27%
3.77
29%
3.45
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Preston xG
Total xG
2.14
1.25
Bournemouth xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.7 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Preston and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Preston and 1.25 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Preston have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 10W 14D 7L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 18W 7D 6L from 31 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preston.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (4W 9D 2L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 8W 4D 3L from 15 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preston are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.65 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Current Season
Bournemouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 10W 14D 7L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 7D 6L in their last 31 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.40 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Preston or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Preston
0
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Preston have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Preston 2-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Bournemouth?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 73%, Bournemouth 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Preston and 20% for Bournemouth.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Preston's recent matches and 33% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Preston's recent games and 20% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preston and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Bournemouth 2-1 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 0.89 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Preston beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.88 / defence 1.21 against Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 27% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 44%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 42%, Bournemouth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Preston winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.