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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Blackburn defy the odds to beat Preston 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Blackburn beat Preston 1-2 at Deepdale, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.08 xG and Blackburn 1.02 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Blackburn outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Blackburn attack 0.93 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Preston 37% | Draw 30% | Blackburn 34%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Blackburn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 47%, Blackburn 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Preston's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Blackburn's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Preston 1.27 PPG, Blackburn 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackburn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights