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Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of West Brom.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat West Brom 3-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.40 xG and West Brom 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against West Brom attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 47% | Draw 30% | West Brom 23%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 53%, West Brom 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

West Brom's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.15 PPG, West Brom 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights