🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Preston 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Preston 1-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.29 xG and Preston 1.10 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preston landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Preston attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 41% | Draw 28% | Preston 32%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 59%, Preston 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Preston's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.18 PPG, Preston 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights