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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Portsmouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Coventry 1.83 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Coventry attack 1.62 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 22% | Draw 23% | Coventry 55%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 55%, Coventry 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.20 PPG, Coventry 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights