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Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Coventry.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Coventry 4-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.14 xG and Coventry 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Coventry attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 19/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 36% | Draw 33% | Coventry 30%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 58%, Coventry 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Coventry's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Coventry (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights