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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bristol City defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol City beat Portsmouth 0-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.28 xG and Bristol City 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portsmouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Bristol City attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 42% | Draw 29% | Bristol City 29%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bristol City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 57%, Bristol City 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bristol City's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.13 PPG, Bristol City 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol City win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Bristol City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights