Portsmouth vs Bristol City – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 0.80x the league average against Bristol City's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol City's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol City Win
24%
4.21
29%
3.40
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.46
1.47
Bristol City xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.47 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.