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Shock result as Portsmouth defy the odds to beat Blackburn 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Portsmouth beat Blackburn 2-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 0.86 xG and Blackburn 1.06 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against Blackburn attack 0.95 / defence 0.78, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 28% | Draw 33% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 55%, Blackburn 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Portsmouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Blackburn's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.09 PPG, Blackburn 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights