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Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat West Brom 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.30 xG and West Brom 1.58 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.60 against West Brom attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 31% | Draw 26% | West Brom 43%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

West Brom's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights