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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Sheffield Wednesday run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Wednesday beat Plymouth 0-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.88 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.67 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sheffield Wednesday outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.18 / defence 1.43 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.12 / defence 1.19, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 43% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Wednesday 34%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sheffield Wednesday win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 53%, Sheffield Wednesday 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights