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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth and Oxford United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 19, as Plymouth and Oxford United drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.06 xG and Oxford United 1.06 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.40 against Oxford United attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 59% | Draw 23% | Oxford United 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Oxford United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Oxford United's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Oxford United arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights