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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Millwall.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Millwall 5-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.01 xG and Millwall 1.39 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.04 / defence 1.55 against Millwall attack 0.85 / defence 0.72, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 27% | Draw 27% | Millwall 46%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Millwall 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Millwall's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Millwall 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Millwall (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights