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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Plymouth 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Plymouth 1-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.19 xG and Leeds 1.81 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.23 / defence 1.43 against Leeds attack 1.26 / defence 0.74, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 25% | Draw 23% | Leeds 52%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Leeds 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights