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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Plymouth 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Plymouth 2-3 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.80 xG and Derby 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.51 against Derby attack 0.71 / defence 1.24, drawn from 83/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 54% | Draw 24% | Derby 23%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 54%, Derby 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Derby's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.01. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights