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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Plymouth and Bristol City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Home Park, Regular Season - 25, as Plymouth and Bristol City drew 2-2 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.67 xG and Bristol City 1.31 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.16 / defence 1.35 against Bristol City attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 45% | Draw 26% | Bristol City 29%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Bristol City 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Bristol City's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.00 PPG, Bristol City 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bristol City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights