Plymouth 2-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 50%, yet in-form Blackburn provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Blackburn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackburn make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Blackburn are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Plymouth 1W, Blackburn 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Plymouth — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Blackburn — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Blackburn 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 52% | Blackburn 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.60 xG and Blackburn 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.091 / defence 1.134 | Blackburn attack 0.924 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.001. Data: 54 Plymouth games / 54 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Blackburn 4.00. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Blackburn (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 40% | Blackburn 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Plymouth 1.60 / Blackburn 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.091 / def 1.134 | Blackburn attack 0.924 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Blackburn xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Blackburn kick off?
Plymouth vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Blackburn?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Plymouth vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Blackburn part of?
Plymouth vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 50% chance of winning, Blackburn a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plymouth and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Blackburn?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Blackburn 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Blackburn in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Blackburn (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Blackburn's attack (0.92x) against Plymouth's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.97
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.65
1.05
Blackburn xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.05 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 14D 25L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn's form line: 18W 14D 22L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Plymouth against 1.26 for Blackburn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (12W 6D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Blackburn have gone 8W 7D 12L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.37 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Blackburn away?
Plymouth's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.56 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plymouth won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Blackburn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Blackburn?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Blackburn have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Blackburn 2-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Blackburn?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 56%, Blackburn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Plymouth and 67% for Blackburn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Plymouth's matches and 67% of Blackburn's.
Do Plymouth and Blackburn tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Blackburn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Blackburn 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.60 xG and Blackburn 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Blackburn attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 50% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 52%, Blackburn 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Blackburn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.09 PPG, Blackburn 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.